Why the US and Global Economies Are Growing More Unstable
With German and Italian banks in trouble, more than $5 trillion in non-performing bank loans worldwide, $13 trillion in negative interest rates, central bank policies increasingly destabilizing markets, China’s financial bubbles roiling, world trade stagnating, and global debt exceeding $150 trillion, the US and global economies are increasingly fragile and prone to another major instability event before 2020. The EU and Eurozone will continue to unravel, China’s growth will slow faster, and the US will likely enter recession in 2017-2018. A new policy shift is on the agenda in advanced economies as central banks retreat from policies of low rates and QE, as governments abandon austerity policies, and as new fiscal stimulus measures focusing on tax cuts and infrastructure spending increasingly become the new economic policy norm post-2016. The talk is based on his theory of Systemic Fragility in the Global Economy from his 2016 book.