With G-7 economies in the doldrums since 2008, the rollercoaster behavior of global commodity markets in the 2010-2015 period is testimony of the huge impact that China’s economy now has on the prosperity of many countries, especially in Southeast Asia. The future course of the Chinese economy will determine, among other things, the legitimacy of its government, the incentives to project force beyond its borders, and the ability to build an effective international coalition to advance its agenda in world affairs. This talk examines (1) the recent marked slowdown in China’s growth to delineate the influence of temporary factors from that of the medium-term trend; (2) policy options; and (3) domestic and external implications of the interaction between two scenarios of Chinese growth and two Southeast Asian settings.

Wing Thye Woo specializes in East Asian economies, particularly China, Indonesia, and Malaysia. He is the Convener of the Asian Economic Panel (AEP), a network of leading scholars on Asian economies; and Editor-in-Chief of the AEP journal, Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press. He was Special Advisor to US Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in 1997-1998 and to PM Abdullah Badawi of Malaysia in 2005-2008. Wing has also advised other governments on economic management, comprehensive tax reform (Fiscal Management and Economic Reform in the People's Republic of China, Oxford University Press, 1995); transition from centrally planned to market economies (Economies in Transition: Comparing Asia and Europe, MIT Press, 1997); handling financial crisis (The Asian Financial Crisis: Lessons for a Resilient Asia, MIT Press, 2000); improving the livability of cities (Ranking the Livability of the Major Cities in the World, World Scientific, 2012); and redesigning the international financial architecture (A New Global Reserve System for a Transformed Global Economy, and Designing the Asian Component, MIT Press, forthcoming).